Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 68 (24 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 37
Defender wins (American): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2025-09-24 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2018-03-07 | Won |
| 1000 | 950 | 57% | 2015-06-20 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2015-03-31 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 950 | 57% | 2014-01-30 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2013-01-12 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2012-01-26 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 983 | 950 | 55% | 2009-01-01 | Won |
| 1229 | 1000 | 79% | 2008-09-11 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2008-07-09 | Won |
| 1032 | 1000 | 55% | 2006-11-06 | Lost |
| 1032 | 847 | 74% | 2006-04-24 | Won |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2006-04-14 | Lost |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2006-04-01 | Won |
| 1029 | 1125 | 37% | 2006-01-28 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2005-10-21 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2005-10-20 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1012.7 vs 994.1 has a 52.67% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).